James Glenday, Host: Well, let's turn back to our top story this morning, which is of course the war in the Middle East, which is entering its fifth day. There are a number of questions about what it means for the global economy, what it means for inflation and of course, what it means for Australia as well. So, let's head to the Trade Minister, Don Farrell, who's at Parliament House in Canberra. Don, welcome back to News Breakfast.
Minister for Trade and Tourism, Don Farrell: Nice talking with you, James.
Host: I just want to start with some of the media coverage of this because there are some really dire predictions of $3 a litre petrol, spiking inflation, potentially rising interest rates. You're at the centre of the federal government, you're expecting things to be that bad?
Minister Farrell: Look, I don't think things will be that bad, James, but of course this is a serious situation. We're unfortunately living in very much an age of uncertainty at the moment. And look, nobody can probably predict just how this is all going to play out. What we can do, of course, is ensure that from Australia's point of view, we are doing everything to assist, firstly the passengers who are sadly stranded in the Middle East and get them back to Australia as quickly as possible. But also particularly in my space, ensure that our traders are continuing to sell their products around the world. Last year was a record year for Australian trade, $1.3 trillion. We've had to navigate some pretty tough issues over the last four years of this government. And in our calm and steady way, that's what we'll be doing on this situation. We're trying to ensure that all of the government resources are directed to assisting people and companies in this situation. And later this morning, I'm meeting with 40 of our largest trading organisations to work out what we can do to help them, to ensure that we continue to sell our wonderful food and wine around the world and make sure that we come out the other end of this in a solid situation.
Host: I might come back to that in just a moment, we are hearing some news that a flight's been organised from Dubai to Sydney. I just wonder if there's any information you have about that?
Minister Farrell: Look, I don't personally have any information about it, but I'm happy to try and get some and provide it to you later in the day.
Host: Well, let's get back to your specific portfolio. How much of what we send to other countries and export goes through this part of the world? What sectors are telling you that they're going to be hard hit by this?
Minister Farrell: Look, a relatively small amount, James, about $15 billion worth of trade. Obviously that's very important for those companies that are trading there. I was in the United Arab Emirates 2 weeks ago the big Gulfood event, the largest food trading event in the world, and we got billions of dollars' worth of more trade. So, our trade is in fact increasing in the Middle East. We now have a free trade agree, the United Arab Emirates. Already our beef trade has doubled in the six months that that trade agreement has been in operation. But of course, all of that gets affected by this uncertainty of the war in the Middle East.
Host: Yeah, I imagine rising shipping costs and things like that are a problem too. Has anyone from the Albanese government spoken to a senior figure in the Trump administration and asked how long is this going to go on for? What exactly is the plan here?
Minister Farrell: Look, you'd have to ask that to the Prime Minister or the Defence Minister or the Foreign Minister.
Host: We have been, have you spoken to your counterpart? Have you said, hey, how long is this going to actually continue for? Because it's obviously causing so much uncertainty. We're close allies, we're giving them all this money for submarines, things like that. Surely the least they could do is say this is what the plan is.
Minister Farrell: Look, I have spoken with my counterpart, but that was last Friday and the topic on that occasion was the tariffs that the Americans impose on Australia and our argument that we should be removing those tariffs. We'll have all the appropriate conversations, but my task right at the moment is to be talking with Australian businesses, working out what we can do as a government to ensure that they can continue to get their product out to the world. And that certainly will be my focus today and in the days ahead.
Host: Is there any reason for people to be panic buying petrol, things like that?
Minister Farrell: No, James, we have the largest reserves of airline fuel, petrol and diesel that we've had in the last 15 years. There's absolutely no reason at all for people to be panic buying. We have ensured that all of those things have been increased over the last few years and there will be no shortages.
Host: Okay, we will hold you that to you to that if that happens. I just want to take you to a separate issue. If it wasn't for Donald Trump, I suspect this week we'd be talking about housing. Tax breaks for investors in housing have long been considered too difficult within Labor to change really since the 2019 election. Do you think there's now a political risk if Labor does not act on this?
Minister Farrell: Look, what we do in this budget, in terms of the issues around housing will be released by the Treasurer in a couple of months.
Host: You're very coy here, Don. I mean, people call you the Godfather for a reason. You're tapped into the politics of this, you're tapped into the detail. Is there a risk if you don't act on these tax breaks?
Minister Farrell: Look, look, we've got a fantastic Treasurer in Jim Chalmers. We've done a whole lot of things in this housing space to try and relieve the pressure on housing issues, whether it's rentals, whether it's buying houses. We'll continue to do that and we'll continue to look at all of the issues around housing so that we can ensure that young Australians in particular can have access to their own home.
Host: I'm going to try one more time before I let you go. Do you think public opinion of negative gearing and the capital gains tax discount has shifted as millennials get older and there are fewer baby boomers?
Minister Farrell: James, we've got a fantastic Treasurer in Jim Chalmers. He's full bottle on all of these issues and all of the issues surrounding the current trade issues. And I'm sure that when the budget is released in two months time, you will be very happy with the outcome.
Host: To quote Tony Jones. I'll take that as a comment. We have asked the Treasurer, Jim Chalmers to come along and have a chat about all of these things, but he is otherwise detained. Don Farrell, Trade Minister. We appreciate your time this morning.
Minister Farrell: Thanks, James.